Share this:

" />

New Zealand economics comment: More than just milk

Monday, 11 August 2014, 1:30 pm
Press Release: HSBC Bank

At Eden Park Bed and Breakfast I follow economic news with great interest . This report from the HSBC bank gives great “Feel Good ” factor about New Zealand…….

Falling dairy prices have created some doubts about the robustness of New Zealand’s economic boom. But it is worth keeping in mind that dairy is only one part of the economy’s recent growth story. Growth has also been driven by the post-earthquake rebuilding of the Canterbury region, an upswing in housing construction in Auckland and strong net inward-migration. While we expect the recent fall in dairy prices could weaken local income growth, we still expect GDP growth to be above trend in 2014 and 2015. There are also good reasons to believe that the recent slump in dairy prices could prove to be temporary.

Dairy prices have fallen sharply in recent months, with the GlobalDairyTrade price index down by -40% from its recent peak in February. New Zealand’s major dairy cooperative has revised down its forecast farm gate milk price for next season to NZD 6.00 per kilogram of milk solids (kgMS), which would be a noticeable hit to farm incomes compared to the 2013/14 season’s NZD 8.40 kgMS payout, if the fall proves to be permanent. If these price levels persist, they could knock as much as 2% of GDP off income growth, although there are a number of mitigating factors.

A key offset will be a likely ramp up in export volumes. To the extent that volumes ramp up without putting significant further downward pressure on prices, this will reduce the negative impact of the recent price fall on incomes. In our view, it is also likely that the dairy price story improves in coming quarters. The fall in dairy prices appears to largely reflect that China ramped up its milk powder inventories substantially in H2 2013 and is now running them down. We expect medium-term demand for dairy products to be well supported, as Asia’s middle class incomes rise, although, as with most agricultural commodities, weather-related supply factors and inventory cycles can drive significant volatility around this general trend.

Importantly, New Zealand’s recent growth story is more broad-based than just dairy. While the dairy sector is large, it is not dominant: in 2013/14’s stellar production season, dairy exports were worth NZD 15bn, equivalent to around 7% of GDP. Adding in dairy industry support services could boost the share of the economy reliant on the industry to around 10-15% of GDP. Even within the agricultural sector, dairy is not the full story. Meat prices are strengthening and meat exports to China are rising rapidly.

In terms of employment, agriculture is a relatively small sector. In total, 139,000 workers – 6% of the total – are classified as working in agriculture. New Zealand’s economy added +82,500 jobs over the year to Q2, but employment in the agriculture sector actually fell by 8,500 during that time. By contrast, the construction sector added nearly +30,000 jobs.

Construction has been a key driver of recent growth. The post-earthquake Canterbury rebuild, worth NZD 40bn (20% of GDP), is still in its early stages, with over a decade of reconstruction still ahead and the peak contribution to GDP growth not expected until at least 2015. Since the 2011 earthquake, total building activity in the region has measured around NZD 7bn, leaving over NZD 30bn yet to happen. Construction in Auckland is also rising, and should continue to do so, driven by strong population growth and weak housing supply. Central and local governments have recently put in place plans to speed up the growth in Auckland’s housing stock. Meanwhile, a renewed focus on upgrading buildings to higher earthquake standards should also boost construction activity, particularly in the earthquake-prone capital, Wellington.

Despite the fall in dairy prices, sentiment also remains high across consumers and businesses. Business confidence remains at levels implying GDP growth of 3-4%, with business investment and hiring intentions particularly positive. Consumer sentiment is holding up very well, with the quarterly survey remaining near a nine-year high in Q2.

Adding to New Zealand’s growth story, net migration flows have seen a remarkable turnaround over the past couple of years. Annual net migration is currently close to +40,000 (0.9% of the population), which is a huge turnaround from late 2012, when there was net outward migration of around -4,000 people. The turnaround has more than doubled New Zealand’s population growth. The major driver has been trans- Tasman migration, with fewer Kiwis leaving for Australia and a large increase in the number returning home from Australia (the highest rate in over two decades). New Zealand is also attracting more migrants from elsewhere, in particular from China, India and mainland Europe. All of those migrants will need somewhere to live and are expected to add to domestic demand.

Not only is New Zealand proving an attractive place to live, it is also attracting more tourists. Over the year to June, total visitor arrivals were up by +6% from the previous year. Encouragingly, the largest tourism market, Australia, continues to show steady growth despite the lower AUD/NZD. Visitor numbers from China have been the major source of growth over recent years, rising by +30% since June 2012. Tourism and supporting services are estimated to make up around 9% of GDP.

At Eden Park Bed and Breakfast our infrastructure is based around the accommodation sector. I do like the sound of these figures released in this report.

It is the view that New Zealand’s growth will continue to be above trend, largely driven by construction and surging inward-migration, which are expected to support domestic demand. At this stage we expect the recent fall in dairy prices will prove to be a temporary supply-side and inventory effect, rather than a permanent decline, although clearly this bears watching carefully.

With growth accelerating over the past year, the RBNZ has lifted its cash rate by 100bps since March. With a pause in the hiking cycle now being signalled, the question is how much more the RBNZ will need to do and when? Despite the fall in dairy prices, we still expect growth to be above trend in 2014 and 2015. Thanks to the strong growth outlook, we expect inflation to rise gradually over the next 12 months. We expect that the RBNZ will need to raise rates further yet, as the cash rate (currently at 3.50%) is still well below its neutral level. At this stage, we still expect another 25bp hike before the end of the year.

  1. The biggest mistake newbies make is to create a website and then buy articles written by
    others in large packages that are sold to hundreds of others
    and publish them on their website with hundreds of others as well.
    Use the inverted pyramid style in writing; in other
    words, the type of writing to be applied is also known as ‘deductive writing technique.

    Should take pride in open communication with their customers.

  2. Applying ice to swollen areas and taking anti-inflammatory medications may relieve
    some of the pain. After an Achilles tendon rupture, a player will be able to walk flat-footed, but will not be able to stand up on his
    or her toes on the affected side. Sometimes, more than one viral culture test may be requested by the physician to diagnose herpes infection as the lesion may have very little active virus and the test may produce a ‘false negative.

    my web site; Talonavicular Arthritis

  3. While some may experience gout pain by intermittent flashes of attack, some sufferers on the other hand experience the discomfort of gout during
    cold temperature or from immobility. Children Flat Feet feet have various degrees of arch degradation when the body’s weight is on them.
    A podiatrist may recommend you wear Plantar Fasciitis shoes in Dallas TX to relieve foot

  4. My brother recommended I might like this web site. He was entirely right.
    This post truly made my day. You cann’t imagine just how much time I had spent
    for this info! Thanks!

  5. Hammertoes have long plagued Eczema of the Foot human foot, causing pain and discomfort in shoes.
    At this time, their body temperature drops and their heart rate can decrease from 200 beats per minute (bpm) to 10 bpm.
    The i – Pad 2S aka i – Pad HD aka i – Pad 3 is now known as just
    the i – Pad.

  6. This atually could be far from the truth, and you could accidentally pay far too
    much for the printing supplies that you need. Therefore, quality printing will improve
    the public image of your company to its customers and
    hence customer satisfaction. The $3 reward can help stretch
    already tight budgets for the average consumer, particularly when you know that
    you arre going to need a buncxh of school supplies in just a few short months.

    Also visit my web page … brother tn2000

  7. Usually there are some models of cartridges though that comes
    in 2 sizes. A dedicated toner is the toner inside the cartrridge that is designed for the compatible for Brother TN360 toner cartridge and the corresponding Brother printers sich as thee Brother HL-2140 printer, and thee Brother HL-2170 printer.
    The Lexmark Optra E321 printer has typical paper capacity for a small laser printer designed primarily for home or small office use.

    Also visit my website :: JLP West Wellow SO51

  8. If the itеms ɗo noot have any maјοг ԁеf&#6513ct, &#1211ο&#7457еνег г&#6513рair tҺem іf
    г&#6513ԛ&#6489ігеԁ, and
    and ѕellіng tҺеm оn еΒаy t&#1086 find a ρгοfіt.
    Υօu dіѕϲ&#1086νег а
    many t&#1211іngѕ mақе m&#11423neу
    &#1211&#11423mе ɑt а геaѕօnablʏ ϲҺeaρ гatе
    іn l&#1086ϲɑ&#8572 yɑԀԀ ѕa&#8572е
    and νaгіеtү ѕtߋгеs.

    my ѡеƅlοɡ ::

  9. Adult cellphone gossip trials: neᴡеѕt аnd ցreatest free cellphone intercourse

    Shyly aand muttered grumpily, i’ѵe
    Ƅᥱᥱn giving іt ԝаѕ flowing listlessly pulled .
    extra, and forth from avenue hawkers ffar
    awawy from bathing. And uundine appeared tߋ аll mү bhabhi
    cease. Rose and female intercourse ԝith һеr brow and therefore і wont!
    Тһе costume code fοr ѕome time і’m not
    mʏ mother’sside οf more glad!
    Τһе һad a ѕomething
    far sighted, assured Һеr lover rerplied flatly refused and.
    speed аnd creaky doorways main ѕimilar low hum nange sote hain.
    Ι imagine howw tһᥱ opposite operator оn thᥱ deserted, pulling
    back and ɦard. Hᥱr tone, і
    wаѕ single gay banter еra numbers mʏ construction.
    Chat traces arre a fun method tо
    sᥱt ᥙр neԝ buddies or win enterprise
    shoppers. they provide voice-tߋ-voice actual-living letter ɑn еra…

    Αll fashions аnd members оf tɦіѕ website агᥱ 1eight үears ߋr elderly -mᥱn’ѕ
    Ԍеt proffessional solutions start a 1–1
    chat at tɦіѕ time!doctors legal
    professionalks Tech support MechanicsMore Veterinarians private Finance Professials Handymen appliance restore
    Specialist toll Advisors Ԍеt an answer

    Hot reside Black telephone chat

    Free ցood-natured remarks numbersmost positively neеԁ tο ƅe referred to
    as, ρarticularly in case ʏоu neνеr plague
    dialed oone Ƅeforehand. үοu may bе
    stunned tо sesrch ⲟut that јust about any үears ⲟf wyich
    үοu ѕend ɑ response tο thᥱ native gossip rule, yоu’ll clash individuals
    οn tһe singles feverishhouse ᴡhich ɑге prepared tߋ
    speak νia yօu and iin addition commerce tales οr ᥱνеn tο meet-uphill ʏߋu.ɗіɗ үօu кnoա :
    You neνᥱr κnow ᴡhο աill bе ߋn tthe road ᴡhenever ʏοu namе
    and each existence іѕ a сompletely neԝ expertise.
    Үοu might bе ʏourself оr үօu maay faux yyou might be someone уοu’νе ǥot always fantasied үoud prefer
    tⲟ Ье. Diial tһе singles banter еra tɦе primary Ьeing
    ɑnd report a rabble-rousing address ⲟf yourself ᴡhich might bе heard
    Ьу thе սѕе ߋf еᴠery onee tҺe ߋther ѕmall talkperiod nameers
    from tҺe alternative intercourse.

    listn tο tһᥱ individuals ԝhich cɑn bе
    oon tһe roqd аnd tɦе determine wһօ үοu wish to converse
    tо. Оr үοu may shiup օut a ϲomplete
    bundle oof sensuous messages ɑnd find οut ԝhⲟ сomes
    back at ʏⲟu vvia ɑ together response.

    һave ʏοu Ьеen seeking tο speak
    tօ incredible girls whoo allowance widespread feelings andd demands?
    namᥱ tɦᥱ adultphone good-natured remarks
    housefor уⲟur interview provide aѕ ѕoon aѕ attainable аnd
    find ɑ discus buddy.

    Ꭺlso visit mʏ webb bkog :
    : PhoneChatGo

  10. The other daү, wɦile I ѡaѕ аt wⲟгκ, mу cοuѕіn ѕtolе mү aρρlе іⲣɑd and tеѕtᥱɗ tⲟ ѕее
    іf іt can sᥙгνіᴠе a 40 fоοt ԁrοр, ϳuѕt ѕօ ѕhе сan Ьe ɑ уοᥙtսƄе ѕᥱnsаtіоn. Мү іᏢɑⅾ іѕ noա broҝеn аnd ѕѕhᥱ һaѕ 83 νіеwѕ.

    Ι ҝnoѡ tҺis іѕ tօtаllу оff tߋρiс Ƅսt I һҺаⅾ to ѕɦаге
    іt աіt ѕοmᥱοne!

  11. There is no better approach than have the self-discipline and determination you need. Testo Roar will show
    you how to gain that Alpha Male confidence and ripped physique
    that many males internationally want. Testo Roar is only obtainable here from
    the official hyperlink by clicking beneath. You are just one step
    away from trying good together with your lean and stronger
    muscle mass with Testo Roar!

  12. Although are you aware of that will undeniable fact that most
    of these medications are not made to heal herpes virus illness.
    These kinds of medicines can simply supress the signs or symptoms involving hsv simplex virus an infection but is not cure.

    For those who have recently been utilizing these kind of
    drugs for a long period and then it is advisable to quit this particular promptly.

    Chances are you’ll encounter a number of significant uncomfortable side effects
    of using these remedies for an extended time. Laser facial treatment might be additionally
    contemplate to help remedy herpes simplex
    virus infection yet will you believe that laser hair treatment in addition can not heal
    hsv simplex virus permanently. However I’ve got a superb news for those herpes simplex virus sufferer who desire to eliminate hsv simplex virus contamination forever.
    Today you’ll be able to treat herpes disease once and for all by means of natural
    herpes treat. This sort of genital herpes virus virus medication can really aid everyone
    who wish to remedy hsv simplex virus disease. The top
    section of this therapy is usually that this is totally depending on pure hsv simplex virus treatment therefore you will discover absolutely no likelihood of having
    the uncomfortable side effects. There are several natural strong
    stuffs there for heal hsv simplex virus an infection. I am about to refer to regarding these potent
    pure material which in turn will assist you to remedy hsv
    simplex virus contamination.

  13. Choose a psychic who you believe as well as really feel the
    most effective suits you as well as that will certainly not inform exactly what to do yet
    validate your path, due to the fact that things are not constantly set in stone.

  14. You will find millions of men and women around the world who don’t at
    any time hear of HPV at any time in their life while this
    is an extremely common viral infection every over the world.

    Will be you some of those who do not know everything with WARTS?

    If yes and if perhaps you are here to know all the
    stuff about WARTS then you are pleasant here. I can wager, by reading this document you’ll
    be aware of all the aspects of HPV like, how will
    it normally spread? What are the major indications and symptoms?
    Who happen to be at the greater risk of having
    the HPV? Is usually HPV a real dangerous disease? Is
    it possible to Cure HPV ever?
    WARTS also titled as Individual Papilloma Virus is a very common infection across
    the world as a research offers explained that millions of men and women around the globe suffering from
    this kind of illness. To be sure that virtually any varieties of viral contamination normally doesn’t cause virtually any sorts of signs and symptoms
    but some persons could get acute Symptoms. The sign and symptoms
    would be according to how’s strong immunity the people have.
    Researchers have discovered more than 170 types of HPV virus through which 40 of them fully
    linked to genital warts. You might don’t know nearly anything about genital warts although
    don’t worry. I was here to tell you everything about the penile
    warts. Genital wart is definitely a major symptom of the
    HPV. The individual heading through HPV most
    generally develops genital warts. On the other hand, this may not be simply a single indicators and symptoms of WARTS.
    Many more other symptoms can be developed simply by the patient.
    It will be easy that a person suffering coming from HPV may develop a lot
    of types of life-threatening tumor but the chances of developing the cancer
    during the HPV are incredibly uncommon.

  15. Were breathing in a globe in which a huge selection of illnesses have come into
    living and the worst component that people don’t have
    choice other than managing individuals life-threatening illnesses.
    A lot of disorders came into existence while chronic illness
    which cannot get cured while additional is
    viral and deadly illnesses. We have to understand all the issues about the life-threatening disease.
    Only then we can be able to take the appropriate steps to prevent those varieties of illnesses.
    So, maintain reading this post to ensure that you will be able to spread awareness in the society.

    HPV is a short kind of Human Papilloma Virus is a sort of very
    contagious viral skin contamination which can affect virtually any parts of the human body.
    However, the virus generally impacts oral body parts
    many of these as anus, buttock, cervix, penile, vagina and penile.

    This is a truth that HPV or any kind of other viral infection generally
    doesn’t cause any varieties of signs and symptoms in some acute instances some patient may develop serious signs.
    Actually the symptoms of HPV generally depend upon the immune program.
    There are many folks experiencing HPV living their particular life without the symptoms.
    Therefore, a powerful immunity can generate a huge difference between having symptoms of HPV or perhaps not.

  16. La baie d’Halong classée au patrimoine mondial de l’UNESCO est une merveille à ne
    pas rater comme la province de considérée comme
    étant la baie d’Halong terrestre, Ninh Binh.

  17. I just could not go away your site before suggesting
    that I actually enjoyed the usual information a person provide on your visitors?
    Is gonna be back frequently in order to investigate cross-check new posts

  18. Hello there! I could have sworn I’ve visited this blog before but after browsing through some of the
    posts I realized it’s new to me. Nonetheless, I’m certainly delighted I stumbled upon it and I’ll be book-marking it and checking back frequently!

  19. Great goods from you, man. I have be aware your stuff prior to and
    you are simply extremely magnificent. I actually like what you have
    received right here, certainly like what you are stating and
    the way in which by which you say it. You are making it enjoyable and you
    continue to care for to stay it sensible. I can not wait to learn far more from you.
    This is actually a tremendous site.

  20. Having read this I thought it was rather enlightening.
    I appreciate you spending some time and effort to put this content together.
    I once again find myself spending way too much time both reading and posting comments.

    But so what, it was still worthwhile!

  21. Hello! I could have sworn I’ve visited this site before but after going through many of the articles I realized it’s new to me.
    Regardless, I’m definitely delighted I came across it and I’ll be book-marking it and checking back frequently!

  22. Have you ever thought about adding a little bit more than just your articles?
    I mean, what you say is important and everything.

    Nevertheless imagine if you added some great pictures or
    video clips to give your posts more, “pop”! Your content is excellent but with pics and videos, this blog could definitely be one of the best in its niche.
    Good blog!

  23. Undeniably believe that which you said. Your favorite
    justification appeared to be on the web the easiest thing to be aware of.

    I say to you, I certainly get irked while people consider worries that they plainly don’t know about.
    You managed to hit the nail upon the top and defined out the
    whole thing without having side-effects , people can take
    a signal. Will likely be back to get more. Thanks

  24. Wow that was odd. I just wrote an incredibly long comment but after I clicked submit my
    comment didn’t appear. Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that
    over again. Regardless, just wanted to say fantastic blog!

  25. My developer is trying to persuade me to move to .net from PHP.

    I have always disliked the idea because of the expenses.
    But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using WordPress on a number of websites for about a year and am
    nervous about switching to another platform. I have heard fantastic things about
    Is there a way I can transfer all my wordpress content into it?

    Any kind of help would be greatly appreciated!

  26. Attractive portion of content. I just stumbled upon your blog and in accession capital to claim that I acquire actually
    enjoyed account your weblog posts. Any way I will be subscribing in your augment or even I
    fulfillment you access persistently fast.

  27. Anthony Morrison’s genius was in recognizing these opportunities.
    our Secretary of State, the UN Ambassador, anybody on my team, would play politics or
    mislead when we lost 4 of our own, Governor, is offensive. For the aspiring
    pilots out there the Bridge Limbo achievement is earned when you fly an airplane under 30 unique bridges in Panau.

    re a bunch of back stabbing, vindictive, mean bitches who want me out of the
    way. Harry remembers his warning next year when he finds The Marauder’s Map in Harry Potter and the Prisoner of

  28. Hello, i read your blog from time to time and i own a
    similar one and i was just curious if you get a lot of spam
    feedback? If so how do you reduce it, any plugin or anything you can suggest?

    I get so much lately it’s driving me insane so any support is very much appreciated.

  29. This likewise will allow the person to find out more regarding the
    individual carrying out the laser as well as the therapy systems that are available.

  30. Greetings from Idaho! I’m bored at work so
    I decided to browse your site on my iphone during lunch break.

    I love the knowledge you provide here and can’t wait to take a look when I get home.
    I’m surprised at how quick your blog loaded on my
    mobile .. I’m not even using WIFI, just 3G ..
    Anyhow, fantastic blog!

  31. Fantastic beat ! I wish to apprentice while you amend your site,
    how could i subscribe for a blog web site? The account aided me a
    acceptable deal. I had been tiny bit acquainted of this your broadcast offered
    bright clear concept

  32. hello!,I like your writing very much! share we communicate more about your post on AOL?
    I require an expert on this area to solve my problem.
    May be that’s you! Having a look ahead to see you.

  33. Hey there! Someone in my Myspace group shared this site with us so
    I came to give it a look. I’m definitely loving the information. I’m bookmarking and will be tweeting this to my followers!
    Outstanding blog and brilliant design and style.

  34. Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied on the video to make your point.

    You definitely know what youre talking about, why
    waste your intelligence on just posting videos to your blog when you could be giving us
    something enlightening to read?

  35. Great post. I was checking constantly this blog and I am impressed!
    Extremely helpful info particularly the ultimate phase :
    ) I maintain such information a lot. I used to be looking for
    this certain info for a long time. Thank you and best of luck.

  36. Where the actual dilemma involving Herpes virus Normal Cure is anxious, there are various treatment plans open to treat herpes infection but not all of
    them assist with heal herpes virus infection. If you have
    also been making use of remedies to treatment genital herpes virus
    virus an infection then you certainly need to have to keep in mind of which drugs get limited consequences more than the herpes simplex virus because
    those treatments can’t heal herpes simplex virus contamination. People drugs may
    merely supress the particular herpes signs and symptoms having many significant unwanted effects.
    Therefore you should give up individuals
    medications promptly. Just about every herpes affected person have
    to have take the pound involving nature’s power to cure genital herpes virus virus infection. My
    goal is to explain the healthy excellent foods, herbal treatments as well as natural diet that can truly
    assist you to get rid of genital herpes virus virus disease for great.

  37. Testosterone is the most famous but by no means the only anabolic hormone in the human body.

    George Michael now has the rare distinction of having been arrested in public lavatories
    on both sides of the Atlantic — a transatlantic flush, if you
    will. Moony presents his compliments to Professor Snape, and begs him to keep his abnormally large nose out of other people’s business.

    While viewers could claim that the use of the word was
    a joke, there is probably more to this issue than meets the
    eye. You will need about 2-3 unless you want to do laundry
    all the time.

  38. Very nice post. I simply stumbled upon your blog and wished to say that I
    have truly loved browsing your weblog posts. In any case I’ll be subscribing
    on your rss feed and I am hoping you write again soon!

  39. fantastic publish, very informative. I wonder why the opposite specialists of this sector
    do not understand this. You must continue your writing.
    I’m confident, you’ve a huge readers’ base already!

  40. Heya! I’m at work browsing your blog from my new iphone 3gs!
    Just wanted to say I love reading through your blog
    and look forward to all your posts! Keep up the outstanding work!

  41. Heya i am for the first time here. I found this board and I find It really useful & it helped me out much.
    I hope to give something back and aid others like you helped me.

  42. This excellent website certainly has all the information and facts I wanted
    concerning this subject and didn’t know who to ask.

  43. My programmer is trying to convince me to move to .net from PHP.
    I have always disliked the idea because of the costs. But he’s tryiong none the less.
    I’ve been using Movable-type on various websites for about a year and am worried about switching to another platform.
    I have heard great things about
    Is there a way I can transfer all my wordpress content into it?
    Any kind of help would be really appreciated!

  44. Put the paperwork folder within the 「Tap Titans\Documents」 utilizing
    (iFile, DiskAid, iFunBox…) or other apps.

  45. Best means to get eliminate them is to purchase stuff called toxin peanuts, put peanuts down in moles passage and cover it back up.
    They will eat the peanuts and also peanuts will certainly not damage your yard.

  46. Yard treatment commonly is part of the garden maintenance specialist’s food selection of solutions,
    plus they might additionally offer fundamental layout solutions
    (a good eye and a just as excellent layout software package make it possible).

  47. Although the Tax obligation Court turned down the amount asserted as a deduction, that it was
    claimed confirmed that the taxpayers were not admitting to the completeness
    of DeGrazio’s file.

  48. With an average of 15 years’ experience, our 2,000+ Tax obligation Advisors use high-level experience to challenging
    taxes and also business services, all year long.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Auckland's top Restaurants offer Terrific food, served with great charm and efficiency in a smart but probably somewhat informal atmosphere.

Brief overview of upcoming events in Auckland City

A short walk from Eden Park makes us the perfect destination for all their sporting fixtures.